Acochain.com – A widely-followed bitcoin (BTC) price indicator is about to turn bullish for the first time in seven months.
Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average (MA) – currently located at $3,669, according to Bitstamp data – could soon move above the 100-day MA at $3,670. The event would confirm the average’s first bullish crossover since the end of August 2018.
However, the bull cross is a lagging indicator, being based on past data, and in this instance is likely more a product of bitcoin’s recovery rally from lows near $3,100 seen in December.
That said, with several key indicators, like the weekly moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and the money flow index flashing early signs of bullish reversal, the probability of the cross trapping the bulls on the wrong side of the market seems low.
As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $3,860, having clocked a low of $3,791 earlier today.
As seen above, the 50-day MA is taking an upward turn and is about to cross the 100-day MA from below.
Further, BTC’s repeated defense of the 100-day MA over the last 12 days has strengthened the bullish case put forward by the long-tailed doji candle created on Feb. 27.
As a result, BTC could soon rise toward the inverse head-and-shoulders neckline resistance, currently located just below the bearish lower high of $4,236 printed on Dec. 24.
A UTC close higher would confirm a bearish-to-bullish trend change and could yield a rally to $5,000.
On the weekly chart, the 5- and 10-candle MAs produced a bullish crossover two weeks ago. BTC also defended the 10-candle MA in the previous two weeks, reinforcing the bullish reversal signaled by the MA studies. (coindesk)
Bitcoin Price Sees First ‘Golden Crossover’ Since 2015
Acochain.com – With bitcoin’s (BTC) move to five-month highs Tuesday, a notable bull cross of key moving averages has formed for the first time in nearly four years.
The crypto market leader jumped to $5,627 on Bitstamp earlier today – the highest level since Nov. 18 – having revived the short-term bullish case with a repeated defense of key support at $5,170 last week.
Meanwhile, the 50-day moving average (MA) has crossed the 200-day MA from below, confirming a long-term bullish pattern known as a “golden crossover” in technical parlance. This is the first golden crossover since October 28, 2015. Many analysts consider the indicator an advanced warning of stronger price gains in the long term.
The crossover, however, is based on moving averages, which are backward-looking in nature. For instance, the 50-day MA is based on 1.5-month old data, while the 200-day MA responds to more than six-month-old price action.
Hence, the indicator is more a confirmation of the recent bull run, rather than a signal of further price gains.
That said, the investor community may take heart from the fact that bitcoin’s previous bull market began just two days after the golden crossover in 2015.
Daily charts 2015/2019: Golden crossover confirmed
As can be seen (above left), the 50-day MA last crossed the 200-day MA from below on Oct. 28, 2015, and prices confirmed a long-term bearish-to-bullish trend change with a close above $319 (July 12, 2015 high) two days later.
The follow-through to that positive trend change was strong and BTC went on to reach an all-time high of $20,000 by December 2017.
This time round, the confirmation of the golden crossover has been preceded by the violation of the bearish lower highs and lower lows pattern on April 2.
While there is a reason to be optimistic, the golden crossover lags price, as discussed earlier. Further, it tends to work as a contrary indicator in the short-term if the market is looking overbought, which looks to be the case currently.
RSI and Long/short ratio
The cryptocurrency’s move to five-month highs has pushed the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) above 70 – a sign of overbought conditions. Hence, a price pullback cannot be ruled out in the short term.
Supporting that argument is bitcoin’s long/short ratio, which has shed the bullish bias. The ratio of BTC/USD long to short positions on Bitfinex (right) is currently hovering just below 1.00 – the lowest level since early January – having printed a high of 1.53 on April 8.
The sharp decline indicates the sentiment has turned from bullish to neutral over the last 15 days. Note that a reading well below 1.00 indicates a bearish bias, while an above-1.00 print represents a bullish market.
Daily chart: UTC close is key
A close above the April 10 high of $5,466 would establish another bullish higher high and strengthen the case for a rally toward $6,000.
However, with the golden crossover accompanied by the overbought readings on the RSI, as well as a bullish-to-neutral shift in the long/short ratio, prices may fail to close above $5,466 or the bullish close could be short-lived.
The odds of a fallback to $5,000 would rise if today’s candle ends in the red well below $5,466, validating the lower high (bearish divergence) of the RSI. (coindesk)
Bitcoin’s Price Climbs Above $5,500 to Reach 5-Month High
Acochain.com – Bitcoin’s price extended its recent gains today, spiking above $5,500 for the first time in over five months.
At 04:00 UTC, the world’s premier cryptocurrency, whose market capitalization accounts for more than half of all other cryptocurrencies combined, picked up a bid and saw its price climb as high as $5,650 in less than 10 minutes on April 23 – its highest price since Nov. 18, 2018.
At the time of writing, bitcoin’s price has since pulled back slightly, now trading across exchanges at an average price of $5,586, according to CoinDesk’s price data.
Also up roughly 1.48 percent on the day, bitcoin’s individual market capitalization rose to its highest value since mid-November, $96.9 billion, while its percent share of the broader cryptocurrency market, also known as its “dominance rate,” is currently at 53.2 percent, according to CoinMarketCap.
CoinMarketCap data also reveals the cryptocurrency’s exchange trade volume reached 15 billion in the last 24 hours, yet those figures may be misleading as suggested by a recent report from asset management firm Bitwise, which identified 95 percent of the reported trading volume on CoinMarketCap to be fake, with only 10 exchanges reporting honest figures.
These 10 exchanges combined, which include the likes Coinbase, Kraken, Bitstamp and more, reported $1.7 billion worth of total bitcoin trading volume in 24-hours, according to Messari.io.
Generally accompanied by a strong move in bitcoin’s price are similar movements in the USD value of most other cryptocurrencies.
Indeed, the broader market is flashing green today with nine of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap rank reporting gains above two percent, the strongest performer of which, Cardano (ADA), is now up 9.71 percent on the day, CoinDesk data shows.
In all, the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market increased roughly 6.3 billion during today’s rally and now stands at $184.3 million, down roughly 78.2 percent from it’s all-time high of $835 billion achieved on January 7, 2018. (coindesk)
Ocean Tries New Token Sale After CoinList Offering Misses Target
Acochain.com – After a token sale on CoinList failed to reach its target, data marketplace Ocean is trying again on crypto exchange Bittrex International.
Ocean Protocol has a vision to become the ecosystem for “a new data economy,” its founder Bruce Pon told CoinDesk. With the release of Ocean’s version 1.0 beta network earlier in April, its tokens are ready to be used on the platform, but the company has not quite met its fundraising goal.
Through its initial exchange offering (IEO), Ocean aims to raise $6.77 million in bitcoin, following a previous round of over $24 million from Outlier Ventures, Block Asset, Fabric Ventures and Digital Currency Group, according to its listing on CoinList.
With its prior 2019 token sales via the Coinlist and Fractal platforms, the firm ultimately raised a total of just $1.8 million, according to a March blog post. If it succeeds with its IEO, it will meet its original goal announced in February for the CoinList sale.
“We had seen that an IEO was a good way to have more awareness and a broader distribution,” Pon said, while also granting they still needed to close that budget gap.
Its listing partner, Bittrex, has been caught up in a recent dispute with the New York Department of Financial Services over its decision not to grant the company a bitlicense. However, its presence in New York is not relevant to Ocean’s present efforts.
Reflecting on its disappointing token sale, Pon said the U.S. is not “the best environment” for this kind of fundraising right now, admitting:
“We misjudged. We went toward a highly regulated jurisdiction. We followed the rules. But the potential purchasers – or acquirers – they are also uncertain themselves.”
Its deal with Bittrex allows Ocean to focus on its core work for this next sale, while Bittrex will market the listing to its large base of users. “They are the ones who are leading the effort to reach out to their customer base,” Pon explained.
In particular, he’s optimistic about the company’s user base abroad. “We think there’s a lot more crypto enthusiasts coming out of Asia,” he said.
In light of market mood, Ocean has also halved the price of the token from that in the earlier sale, from $0.25 to $0.12.
Ocean noted to supporters in its Telegram channel that they should read the full IEO announcement before flipping out. That’s because participants in the original sale will still be able to opt-in to the better deal, Pon explained, and will get a distribution of tokens at the new price.
“It was just fair,” he said.
The initial circulating supply of OCEAN tokens will represent 22.3 percent of the total supply of 1.41 billion tokens. The greatest portion of future tokens, 51 percent, will be emitted through network rewards for validating transactions, though Ocean has not announced its consensus model yet.
The vision for Ocean is to serve as a place where those with large pools of data can share them securely, allowing data scientists to run analyses on them. The data holders will get the analysis they need and the scientists will both get to hone their tools and earn money as they do so.
The token will be the medium of exchange for these transactions, but Pon explained it will be also used to stake data sets as a way of signaling quality data.
Pon further articulated a much larger vision for the OCEAN token. “What we ideally see for the token is it becomes the reserve currency of the data economy,” he said.
For example, he described a future where companies generating large amounts of data (such as autonomous car sensor makers) could fund the development of their product by selling a security token against the future revenue of that data set – a kind of data IPO.
“What happens if the people who have bought shares in those data streams start to act on behalf of those data streams to get more channels of distribution?” Pon asked.
That’s the sort of future Pon believes could be feasible, provided Ocean is able to mobilize the resources it needs to develop the software today. (coindesk)
Bitcoin Price RSI Confirms Possible Long-Term Bull Reversal
Acochain.com – With a widely-followed price indicator now signaling a long-term bullish reversal, bitcoin (BTC) could extend its recent rally to $6,000 over the next couple of months.
Notably, the 14-week relative strength index (RSI) – an indicator used to identify overbought or oversold conditions – has found acceptance above the key 53.00–55.00 resistance range, which had served as strong support in the 2015–2017 bull market.
Essentially, the indicator has jumped back to bull market territory, reinforcing the longer term bullish reversal first confirmed by bitcoin’s violation of a bearish lower highs and lower lows pattern on April 2.
As a result, BTC may challenge the former support-turned-resistance of $6,000 in the near term.
As of writing, the crypto market leader is changing hands near $5,300 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.20 percent gain on a 24-hour basis. Prices have been largely restricted to $4,900–$5,500 range since April 3 and may see a pullback before prices rise to $6,000.
As seen above (left), the 14-week RSI has found acceptance above the resistance range of 53.00-55.00.
While a reading above 50 indicates bullish conditions, the weekly RSI established the 53.00-55.00 range as the make-or-break level during the 2.5-year bull market that topped out in December 2017 at a record high of $20,000.
At no point during the bull market were the bears strong enough to push the RSI below 53.00. Further, the RSI’s break below 53.00 in January 2018 was followed by a bear market that saw prices slide to lows near $3,100 by December.
Also, note how the RSI’s repeated rejection of attempts to climb back above 53.00 in the five months to October 2018 was followed by a high-volume drop below $6,000 on Nov. 14.
So, with RSI now having found acceptance above 55.00, the longer-term bearish-to-bullish trend change confirmed by a falling channel breakout two weeks ago looks to have legs, and BTC could rise to the former support-turned-resistance of $6,000 over the next couple of months.
Backing that argument are the 5- and 10-week moving averages (MAs), which are sloping upwards in favor of the bulls for the first time since early December 2017. These bullish averages, currently located at $5,045 and $4,505, may act as brakes on any pullbacks going forward.
Signs of bullish exhaustion have emerged on the daily chart. For instance, BTC created a doji candle on Friday and remained more or less flat-lined over the weekend. The case for a deeper pullback, however, would strengthen only if the recent low of $4,934 is breached.
A break below that level cannot be ruled out, as markets often test the bulls’ resolve immediately after a major breakout. For instance, the 100-day MA hurdle, which was breached on Feb. 19, was put to testmultiple times in the 10 days to March 4 before a sustained move higher.
On similar lines, BTC may revisit the 200-day MA, currently at $4,482, before rising further.
The cryptocurrency, however, may pick up a bid in the next 24 hours, if the bearish pattern seen in the chart below is violated.
Currently, BTC is flirting with the upper edge of a bearish channel, having invalidated both a bearish divergence of the RSI and a falling wedge breakdown with repeated defense of support at $5,170 last week.
The channel breakout, therefore, looks likely and could be followed by a retest of the recent high of $5,466.
On the downside, a break below $5,170 would shift risk in favor of a drop to the recent low of $4,912. (coindesk)