Acochain.com – A bottom formation after a long bear market is not a linear process. At various intervals, we are likely to witness spurts of buying and selling as the bulls and the bears attempt to establish their supremacy. After a smart recovery from the lows, when it looked like the bears had surrendered, came the plunge on Feb. 24, that wiped off about $15 billion from the total market capitalization within a few minutes.
Such selling is not always based on fundamental news or events. Technical factors like profit booking near a stiff resistance and initiation of short positions by aggressive bears can bring about such a sharp fall. While we expect volatility in the bottoming process, we are keeping our focus on the positive fundamental developments. The longer the markets disregard the fundamentals, the stronger the eventual breakout will be.
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The recovery in Bitcoin (BTC) that started from $3,355 could not scale above the critical resistance of $4,255. The bears swung into action on Feb. 25 and pushed the price back down to the 20-day EMA. The downtrend line, which had previously acted as a stiff resistance, should act as a strong support now.
If the price bounces from current levels, the bulls will again try to break out of $4,255. If successful, it will indicate a double bottom formation that has a pattern target of $5,273.91. The traders can protect their long positions with a stop loss just below $3,236.09.
Contrary to our assumption, if the bears sink the BTC/USD pair below the downtrend line, it can again correct to $3,355. If the support fails to hold up, the next support on the downside is at $3236.09, below which the downtrend will resume.
Both the moving averages are flat and the RSI is close to the center, which points to a consolidation in the near term. The price action of the next couple of days will give us better insight on whether lower levels are in the offering or is this just a shakeout of the weaker hands.
Ethereum (ETH) took a nosedive on Feb. 24 after rising above the overhead resistance of $167.32. We hope traders booked profits on half of their long positions as we had suggested.
The decline on Feb. 24 wiped off gains of the past six days. This shows the extent of the carnage. The ETH/USD pair is trying to bounce off the critical support at $134.5. The 20-day EMA is also nearby, hence, this level assumes significance.
A failure to hold this level will indicate weakness and will attract further selling. Below $134.50, a drop to $116.30 is probable. Therefore, traders can keep a stop loss of $125 on the remaining half position.
We do not want to close the position at current levels, because if the bulls succeed in defending the support, they will make another attempt to break out of $167.32.
Ripple (XRP) closed above the overhead resistance of $0.33108 on Feb. 23, thus triggering our buy recommendation. However, the very next day, the digital currency turned around and plunged below both the moving averages. It is currently attempting to hold the immediate support at $0.29282.
Currently, both the moving averages are flat and the RSI is just above the 50 level. This shows a balance between the buyers and the sellers. Traders can keep their stop loss just below $0.27795.
If the XRP/USD pair finds support at current levels, it will again try to break out of $0.33108. However, if it breaks down of $0.29282, it can slide to the next support at $0.27795, which should hold. If we do not find signs of buying within the next couple of days, we might suggest to close the position.
EOS reached our target objective of $4.4930 on Feb. 23. However, it did not stay at that level and quickly turned around. The fall was sharp, as it easily broke below the support of $3.8723. We hope traders would have locked in profits on half of their long positions as we had recommended in the previous analysis.
Currently, the EOS/USD pair is trying to hold the support at the 20-day EMA, which is sloping up. If successful, it will again try to break out of $3.8723.
However, if the bears breakdown of the 20-day EMA, the fall can extend to the 50-day SMA. If this support also breaks, the slide can reach the critical support at $2.1733. Therefore, traders can keep a stop loss of $2.90 on the remaining open position.
Litecoin (LTC) turned around from just above $53 on Feb. 24. The fall was sharp, and the support at $47.2460 was taken out instantly. We hope the traders had trailed the stops on half of their long position closely and locked in profits as suggested by us.
Currently, the bulls are trying to hold the 20-day EMA. If successful, the LTC/USD pair will again attempt to rise above $47.2460. However, if the support gives way, the pair can dive to the 50-day SMA. If this support also breaks, the trend will turn in favor of the bears. Hence, traders can keep their stop loss on the remaining position at $40.
Both the moving averages are flattening out and the RSI has dipped close to 50. This increases the probability of a range formation in the short-term.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) attempted to extend its recovery on Feb. 23 but the sharp fall on Feb. 24 took it back to the moving averages.
Currently, the bulls are attempting to hold the moving averages, which are flat. The RSI is also close to 50. If the support at the moving averages holds, the pair can consolidate between $125 and $160 for a few days.
Our view will be negated if the bears sink the BCH/USD pair below the moving averages. Such a move will result in a fall to $105. Traders who are long can hold their positions with the stop at $116.
After rising above the 50-day SMA on Feb. 23, Stellar (XLM) reversed direction and plunged below the 20-day EMA on the next day. If the price sustains below the 20-day EMA, it can decline to $0.0750 and below it to the low of $0.07256747.
Previous strong resistances act as supports after they are crossed. Thus, the downtrend line is likely to act as a strong support. If the XLM/USD pair bounces off this support, it will again attempt to scale the 50-day SMA.
Both the moving averages are flattening out and the RSI is close to the neutral zone. Hence, we anticipate a consolidation in the next few days. As the pair is still close to its yearly lows, we shall wait for a trend reversal before proposing a trade in it.
Tron (TRX) reached the overhead resistance at $0.02815521 on Feb. 24 but turned down sharply from it. The fall triggered our suggested stop loss on long positions at $0.0230.
Currently, the bulls are again attempting to scale above the moving averages and the downtrend line. If successful, the TRX/USD pair will make another attempt to rise above the overhead resistance.
On the other hand, if the price breaks down and sustains below $0.02260516, it can slump to $0.02113440 and below it to $0.01830000. The moving averages have completed a bearish crossover and the 20-day EMA has started to turn down. This shows that the bears have the upper hand in the near term.
Binance Coin (BNB) is facing resistance in the zone of $10 to $12 as we have been mentioning. The price dipped back from close to $12 to just below $10 on Feb. 24. Nevertheless, we like the way the price bounced off the 20-day EMA, which shows that the bulls are buying on dips.
With both the moving averages sloping up and the RSI in the positive territory, the trend remains up. If the price sustains above $10, we anticipate the digital currency to consolidate between $10 and $12 for a few more days.
Our view will be invalidated if the BNB/USD pair plummets below the 20-day EMA. That can lead to a fall to the next support at the 50-day SMA. A breakdown of the 50-day SMA will tilt the advantage in favor of the bears. We shall wait for a breakout above $12 before recommending a trade in it.
Cardano (ADA) came close to the overhead resistance of $0.051468 but could not cross it. Strong selling at this resistance dragged the price back to the moving averages. The moving averages are fat and the RSI is also at the midpoint. This suggests that the consolidation is likely to continue for a few more days.
We shall turn positive on a breakout of the overhead resistance. Another probable trade is to buy closer to the bottom of the range, after a strong bounce from it. Such an entry will help the traders buy closer to a strong support. However, we shall suggest this trade only after the ADA/USD pair rebounds sharply from the key support of $0.036815. We do not find any buy setups at current levels. (Cointelegraph)
Bitcoin Rallies $2K in 24 Hours But Price Hurdles Remain Intact
Acochain.com – Bitcoin (BTC) has risen sharply in the last 24 hours, but a key price hurdle must still be passed to confirm a bull revival.
The premier cryptocurrency by market value was on the defensive in the early European trading hours on Tuesday, having breached support at $10,300 on the back of high volumes.
The ensuing sell-off, however, was cut short near $9,614 and prices rose back above $10,300 in the U.S. session, confirming a bullish double-bottom breakout. The price jumped to $10,700 following the breakout, as expected, and extended gains further to hit a high of $11,575 on Bitstamp earlier today.
With the $2,000 rally, bitcoin has established a base or technical support around $9,600. The quick recovery could also be considered a sign of strong demand below the psychological level of $10,000.
However, it is still too early to call a retest of the recent high of $13,880, as the cryptocurrency is yet to invalidate the most basic of all bearish patterns – a lower high. For that, the price needs to rise above the June 28 high of $12,448.
As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $11,350 on Bitstamp, representing 11 percent gains on a 24-hour basis.
Hourly and weekly charts
A high-volume break above the bearish lower high of $13,880 (above left) would confirm an end of the price pullback and open the doors to a retest of, and possibly a break above, the recent high of $13,880.
Traders may argue that the cryptocurrency has already breached the falling channel – a sign of bullish reversal.
While that’s true, the breakout wasn’t backed by a surge in buy volume (green bars). Further, sell volumes have been higher than buy volumes post-breakout – a trend that has been in place ever since bitcoin topped out at $13,800. That puts a question mark on the sustainability of gains above $11,000.
And widely followed long-term technical indicators like the 14-week relative strength index (RSI) continue to report overbought conditions with an above-70 reading. In such situations, price breakouts on the hourly and other shorter-duration charts often end up trapping the bulls on the wrong side of the market.
Hence, it’s likely safer to wait for stronger confirmation of a bull revival in the form of a break above $12,448.
BTC created a bullish hammer candle on Tuesday, comprising of a long lower wick – a sign of dip demand or rejection of lower prices – and a small body (the gap between open and close).
The hammer pattern is widely considered a sign of bullish reversal. The candle’s success rate, however, is higher when it appears after a prolonged downtrend, which isn’t the case here. Nevertheless, the candle does indicate that $9,614 is now the level to beat for bears.
That level could come into play if prices drop below $10,830 (today’s low), reinforcing the bearish view put forward by the cross of the 5-day moving average below the 10-day average. (coindesk)
Brazilian Bank Plans to Use Tezos Blockchain for STOs Worth $1 Billion
Acochain.com – BTG Pactual, Brazil’s fifth largest bank, plans to utilize the Tezos blockchain for security token offerings potentially worth $1 billion.
For the effort, BTG – also Brazil’s largest standalone investment bank – will team with Dubai-based asset manager Dalma Capital.
In a press release published Wednesday, the two firms said they would use the Tezos network for the sale of digital securities to “address a deal pipeline in excess of $1bn for existing and prospective token issuances.”
The deals include the ReitBZ tokenized property offering announced in February, and would further cover a variety of traditional and alternative investments, they noted.
The companies said:
“Utilizing Tezos, a self-amending blockchain and smart contracts platform will encourage BTG Pactual and Dalma Capital to enhance their digitization efforts, by transacting in digital assets.”
Since the announcement earlier this year, the ReitBZ STO, which uses an ethereum-based token, has launched and passed its soft cap, according to the release.
“While the bank remains protocol and technology agnostic, and will continue to utilize the Ethereum protocol, we see Tezos as a global player with a robust blockchain for asset tokenization” said Andre Portilho, a BTG partner who heads the STO initiative.
Dalma Capital has joined the effort as joint bookrunner (or underwriter) for ReitBZ, and further expects to use Tezos for a number of other asset tokenization projects, from real estate to sports clubs.
“We see Tezos as one of the critical protocols for the burgeoning STO market, and look forward to securing future deal flow on the Tezos blockchain,” said Zachary Cefaratti, Dalma Capital CEO.
Tim Draper, CEO and founder of Draper Associates, which holds a stake in Tezos, said “We are excited to see BTG Pactual and Dalma Capital making use of the Tezos blockchain – we are believers in the Tezos project and see a strong use case for security tokens.” (coindesk)
Bitcoin Eyes Independence Day Price Gains for Fifth Year Running
Acochain.com – Bitcoin (BTC) looks set to close in the green on U.S. Independence Day for the fifth consecutive year, having recovered nearly 25 percent from recent lows.
The top cryptocurrency by market capitalization rose 1.17, 1.79, 3.35 and 1.67 percent on July 4 in 2018, 2017, 2016 and 2015, respectively, according to Bitstamp data.
BTC’s Independence Day performance in the years prior to 2015 is mixed. Prices saw little change in 2012, rose 3.16 percent in 2013 and suffered a 2.63 percent loss in 2014.
All-in-all, bitcoin, considered by some observers as an anti-establishment asset, has put on a good show on the U.S. Independence Day in five out of the last seven years.
The cryptocurrency now appears poised to extend the four-year winning trend, as the recovery from recent lows seems to be gathering traction and the short duration charts are now flashing bullish signals.
As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $11,600, representing 4 percent gains on a 24-hour basis, having hit a high of $12,061 earlier today. At that price, the cryptocurrency was up more than $2,400, or 25 percent, from the July 21 low of $9,614.
BTC jumped 4 percent in 60 minutes late on Wednesday, confirming an upside break of the symmetrical triangle – a bullish continuation pattern – on the hourly chart.
Notably, the breakout was backed by a sharp rise in buy volumes (green bars). In fact, buy volume climbed to its highest since July 1, invalidating the bearish volume divergence represented by the falling trendline.
Therefore, the path of least resistance is on the higher side and prices could rise toward the bearish lower high of $12,448 created on June 26.
While the momentum has cooled somewhat in the last 10 hours, the minor price pullback seems to have taken the shape of a bull flag – a pause that often restarts with upwards momentum.
The probability of BTC posting daily gains with a UTC close above today’s opening price of $12,061 would drop if the price finds acceptance below $11,385 – the low of yesterday’s high-volume bullish candle (horizontal line).
That, however, looks unlikely, as the daily chart is reporting a bullish candlestick pattern.
BTC rose 10.5 percent on Wednesday, marking a strong follow-through to the dip demand highlighted by the preceding day’s bullish hammer candle.
The candlestick pattern indicates the pullback likely ended at $9,614 and thus prices could continue to rise toward the recent high of $13,880. (coindesk)
Litecoin Outperforms Top-10 Cryptos Ahead of August Reward Halving
Acochain.com – With the supply of new coins to be halved in less than five weeks, litecoin is outpacing its peers.
The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is currently trading at $123, representing 5 percent gains on a seven-day basis, according to data source CoinMarketCap.
Meanwhile, bitcoin, the top cryptocurrency by market value, is currently reporting a meager 1 percent gain on a weekly basis. Other top-10 cryptocurrencies are trading mixed as seen in the table below.
- Cardano, down 10 percent, is the worst performing top-10 cryptocurrency over the last seven days.
- ETH, XRP, BCH, and EOS are flashing red.
- Binance coin is up a staggering 481 percent on a year-to-date basis, followed by litecoin, up 305 percent.
Litecoin’s recent relatively shining performance could be associated with the mining reward halving due on Aug. 6 this year.
The process is aimed at curbing inflation by reducing the coins paid out for mining on litecoin’s blockchain by half. So, after Aug. 6, miners will get 12.5 coins for every block mined – down 50 percent from the current reward of 25 coins.
Essentially, miners will be adding fewer coins to the ecosystem, likely leading to less in circulation. The impending supply cut might have helped LTC outperform its peers in the last seven days.
While it is logical to expect the cryptocurrency to rise further in the run-up to the event, the upside looks limited. After all, LTC has already witnessed phenomenal growth in both price and non-price metrics so far this year, and is currently up more than 300 percent on a year-to-date basis.
Meanwhile, litecoin’s hash rate, or computing power dedicated to mining, rose to a record high of 468.1019 TH/s this week. Notably, the metric is currently up 220 percent from the low of 146.2118 TH/s seen in December.
All-in-all, the market may have largely priced in the reward halving already. In fact, if history is a guide, the probability of LTC witnessing a sharp pullback in the run-up to the Aug. 6 event is high.
It is worth noting that LTC had nosedived from $8.72 to $2.55 in 6.5-weeks leading up to the previous reward halving, which took place on Aug. 25, 2015.
Technical charts are also signaling scope for a near-term price drop.
While the bullish higher lows, higher highs pattern is intact, the relative strength index (RSI) is reporting a bearish divergence and the 5- and 10-candle moving averages have produced a bearish crossover.
As a result, the price risks falling to the 200-candle MA, currently at $221. A violation there would expose the 50-candle MA, currently at $83.00.
On the higher side, a high-volume break above $140 is needed to expose the next major resistance lined up at $182 (May 2018 high). (coindesk)