Acochain.com – A bottom formation after a long bear market is not a linear process. At various intervals, we are likely to witness spurts of buying and selling as the bulls and the bears attempt to establish their supremacy. After a smart recovery from the lows, when it looked like the bears had surrendered, came the plunge on Feb. 24, that wiped off about $15 billion from the total market capitalization within a few minutes.
Such selling is not always based on fundamental news or events. Technical factors like profit booking near a stiff resistance and initiation of short positions by aggressive bears can bring about such a sharp fall. While we expect volatility in the bottoming process, we are keeping our focus on the positive fundamental developments. The longer the markets disregard the fundamentals, the stronger the eventual breakout will be.
After Venezuela, now Russia plans to launch an oil-backed cryptocurrency. OPEC along with Russia are exploring options for settling their energy dealings in crypto instead of Petrodollars. If this happens, it will give a big boost to crypto markets. When a head of state endorses blockchain technology and recommends it to the leaders of other nations, it shows that the time of this technology has come.
The recovery in Bitcoin (BTC) that started from $3,355 could not scale above the critical resistance of $4,255. The bears swung into action on Feb. 25 and pushed the price back down to the 20-day EMA. The downtrend line, which had previously acted as a stiff resistance, should act as a strong support now.
If the price bounces from current levels, the bulls will again try to break out of $4,255. If successful, it will indicate a double bottom formation that has a pattern target of $5,273.91. The traders can protect their long positions with a stop loss just below $3,236.09.
Contrary to our assumption, if the bears sink the BTC/USD pair below the downtrend line, it can again correct to $3,355. If the support fails to hold up, the next support on the downside is at $3236.09, below which the downtrend will resume.
Both the moving averages are flat and the RSI is close to the center, which points to a consolidation in the near term. The price action of the next couple of days will give us better insight on whether lower levels are in the offering or is this just a shakeout of the weaker hands.
Ethereum (ETH) took a nosedive on Feb. 24 after rising above the overhead resistance of $167.32. We hope traders booked profits on half of their long positions as we had suggested.
The decline on Feb. 24 wiped off gains of the past six days. This shows the extent of the carnage. The ETH/USD pair is trying to bounce off the critical support at $134.5. The 20-day EMA is also nearby, hence, this level assumes significance.
A failure to hold this level will indicate weakness and will attract further selling. Below $134.50, a drop to $116.30 is probable. Therefore, traders can keep a stop loss of $125 on the remaining half position.
We do not want to close the position at current levels, because if the bulls succeed in defending the support, they will make another attempt to break out of $167.32.
Ripple (XRP) closed above the overhead resistance of $0.33108 on Feb. 23, thus triggering our buy recommendation. However, the very next day, the digital currency turned around and plunged below both the moving averages. It is currently attempting to hold the immediate support at $0.29282.
Currently, both the moving averages are flat and the RSI is just above the 50 level. This shows a balance between the buyers and the sellers. Traders can keep their stop loss just below $0.27795.
If the XRP/USD pair finds support at current levels, it will again try to break out of $0.33108. However, if it breaks down of $0.29282, it can slide to the next support at $0.27795, which should hold. If we do not find signs of buying within the next couple of days, we might suggest to close the position.
EOS reached our target objective of $4.4930 on Feb. 23. However, it did not stay at that level and quickly turned around. The fall was sharp, as it easily broke below the support of $3.8723. We hope traders would have locked in profits on half of their long positions as we had recommended in the previous analysis.
Currently, the EOS/USD pair is trying to hold the support at the 20-day EMA, which is sloping up. If successful, it will again try to break out of $3.8723.
However, if the bears breakdown of the 20-day EMA, the fall can extend to the 50-day SMA. If this support also breaks, the slide can reach the critical support at $2.1733. Therefore, traders can keep a stop loss of $2.90 on the remaining open position.
Litecoin (LTC) turned around from just above $53 on Feb. 24. The fall was sharp, and the support at $47.2460 was taken out instantly. We hope the traders had trailed the stops on half of their long position closely and locked in profits as suggested by us.
Currently, the bulls are trying to hold the 20-day EMA. If successful, the LTC/USD pair will again attempt to rise above $47.2460. However, if the support gives way, the pair can dive to the 50-day SMA. If this support also breaks, the trend will turn in favor of the bears. Hence, traders can keep their stop loss on the remaining position at $40.
Both the moving averages are flattening out and the RSI has dipped close to 50. This increases the probability of a range formation in the short-term.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) attempted to extend its recovery on Feb. 23 but the sharp fall on Feb. 24 took it back to the moving averages.
Currently, the bulls are attempting to hold the moving averages, which are flat. The RSI is also close to 50. If the support at the moving averages holds, the pair can consolidate between $125 and $160 for a few days.
Our view will be negated if the bears sink the BCH/USD pair below the moving averages. Such a move will result in a fall to $105. Traders who are long can hold their positions with the stop at $116.
After rising above the 50-day SMA on Feb. 23, Stellar (XLM) reversed direction and plunged below the 20-day EMA on the next day. If the price sustains below the 20-day EMA, it can decline to $0.0750 and below it to the low of $0.07256747.
Previous strong resistances act as supports after they are crossed. Thus, the downtrend line is likely to act as a strong support. If the XLM/USD pair bounces off this support, it will again attempt to scale the 50-day SMA.
Both the moving averages are flattening out and the RSI is close to the neutral zone. Hence, we anticipate a consolidation in the next few days. As the pair is still close to its yearly lows, we shall wait for a trend reversal before proposing a trade in it.
Tron (TRX) reached the overhead resistance at $0.02815521 on Feb. 24 but turned down sharply from it. The fall triggered our suggested stop loss on long positions at $0.0230.
Currently, the bulls are again attempting to scale above the moving averages and the downtrend line. If successful, the TRX/USD pair will make another attempt to rise above the overhead resistance.
On the other hand, if the price breaks down and sustains below $0.02260516, it can slump to $0.02113440 and below it to $0.01830000. The moving averages have completed a bearish crossover and the 20-day EMA has started to turn down. This shows that the bears have the upper hand in the near term.
Binance Coin (BNB) is facing resistance in the zone of $10 to $12 as we have been mentioning. The price dipped back from close to $12 to just below $10 on Feb. 24. Nevertheless, we like the way the price bounced off the 20-day EMA, which shows that the bulls are buying on dips.
With both the moving averages sloping up and the RSI in the positive territory, the trend remains up. If the price sustains above $10, we anticipate the digital currency to consolidate between $10 and $12 for a few more days.
Our view will be invalidated if the BNB/USD pair plummets below the 20-day EMA. That can lead to a fall to the next support at the 50-day SMA. A breakdown of the 50-day SMA will tilt the advantage in favor of the bears. We shall wait for a breakout above $12 before recommending a trade in it.
Cardano (ADA) came close to the overhead resistance of $0.051468 but could not cross it. Strong selling at this resistance dragged the price back to the moving averages. The moving averages are fat and the RSI is also at the midpoint. This suggests that the consolidation is likely to continue for a few more days.
We shall turn positive on a breakout of the overhead resistance. Another probable trade is to buy closer to the bottom of the range, after a strong bounce from it. Such an entry will help the traders buy closer to a strong support. However, we shall suggest this trade only after the ADA/USD pair rebounds sharply from the key support of $0.036815. We do not find any buy setups at current levels. (Cointelegraph)
Ethereum (ETH) Price Fails Again Near $176, Should U Buy?
Acohain.com – Ethereum price failed to break important resistances versus the US Dollar and bitcoin. ETH declined sharply, but the bulls might protected the key $166 and $165 support levels.
Ethereum Price Analysis
Yesterday, we saw a fresh increase in Ethereum price above the $172 resistance against the US Dollar. The ETH/USD pair even settled above the $172 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a fresh rally in bitcoin price above $5,500, which pushed ETH price above the $175 level. However, the bulls failed to gain strength above the key $176 and $177 resistance levels. A swing high was formed near $177 and later the price started a sharp decline.
It broke the $174, $172 and $170 support levels to move back in a bearish zone. There was also a close below the $172 pivot level and the 100 hourly SMA. The price traded close to the $166 support level and a swing low was formed near $167. At the outset, the price is consolidating losses near $167 and it is testing the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent slide from the $177 swing high to $167 swing low. It seems like the price might correct in the short term towards $170 or $172.
Having said that, a close above the $172 level and the 100 hourly SMA is must for a decent upward move. The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent slide from the $177 swing high to $167 swing low is also near $172. If there is a close above $172, the price may revisit the $176 and $177 resistances. If not, the price might test the $166 or $165 support level in the near term.
Looking at the chart, Ethereum price clearly trimmed most its gains and broke the key $172 and $170 supports. If sellers remain in action, there are chances of a downside extension below the $165 support. As long as the price is above $165, the bulls might attempt to push the price above $172.
ETH Technical Indicators
Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is currently heavily in the bearish zone, with negative signs.
Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD declined heavily below 50 and it is currently near the 27 level.
Major Support Level – $166
Major Resistance Level – $172
Bitcoin Price Sees First ‘Golden Crossover’ Since 2015
Acochain.com – With bitcoin’s (BTC) move to five-month highs Tuesday, a notable bull cross of key moving averages has formed for the first time in nearly four years.
The crypto market leader jumped to $5,627 on Bitstamp earlier today – the highest level since Nov. 18 – having revived the short-term bullish case with a repeated defense of key support at $5,170 last week.
Meanwhile, the 50-day moving average (MA) has crossed the 200-day MA from below, confirming a long-term bullish pattern known as a “golden crossover” in technical parlance. This is the first golden crossover since October 28, 2015. Many analysts consider the indicator an advanced warning of stronger price gains in the long term.
The crossover, however, is based on moving averages, which are backward-looking in nature. For instance, the 50-day MA is based on 1.5-month old data, while the 200-day MA responds to more than six-month-old price action.
Hence, the indicator is more a confirmation of the recent bull run, rather than a signal of further price gains.
That said, the investor community may take heart from the fact that bitcoin’s previous bull market began just two days after the golden crossover in 2015.
Daily charts 2015/2019: Golden crossover confirmed
As can be seen (above left), the 50-day MA last crossed the 200-day MA from below on Oct. 28, 2015, and prices confirmed a long-term bearish-to-bullish trend change with a close above $319 (July 12, 2015 high) two days later.
The follow-through to that positive trend change was strong and BTC went on to reach an all-time high of $20,000 by December 2017.
This time round, the confirmation of the golden crossover has been preceded by the violation of the bearish lower highs and lower lows pattern on April 2.
While there is a reason to be optimistic, the golden crossover lags price, as discussed earlier. Further, it tends to work as a contrary indicator in the short-term if the market is looking overbought, which looks to be the case currently.
RSI and Long/short ratio
The cryptocurrency’s move to five-month highs has pushed the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) above 70 – a sign of overbought conditions. Hence, a price pullback cannot be ruled out in the short term.
Supporting that argument is bitcoin’s long/short ratio, which has shed the bullish bias. The ratio of BTC/USD long to short positions on Bitfinex (right) is currently hovering just below 1.00 – the lowest level since early January – having printed a high of 1.53 on April 8.
The sharp decline indicates the sentiment has turned from bullish to neutral over the last 15 days. Note that a reading well below 1.00 indicates a bearish bias, while an above-1.00 print represents a bullish market.
Daily chart: UTC close is key
A close above the April 10 high of $5,466 would establish another bullish higher high and strengthen the case for a rally toward $6,000.
However, with the golden crossover accompanied by the overbought readings on the RSI, as well as a bullish-to-neutral shift in the long/short ratio, prices may fail to close above $5,466 or the bullish close could be short-lived.
The odds of a fallback to $5,000 would rise if today’s candle ends in the red well below $5,466, validating the lower high (bearish divergence) of the RSI. (coindesk)
Bitcoin’s Price Climbs Above $5,500 to Reach 5-Month High
Acochain.com – Bitcoin’s price extended its recent gains today, spiking above $5,500 for the first time in over five months.
At 04:00 UTC, the world’s premier cryptocurrency, whose market capitalization accounts for more than half of all other cryptocurrencies combined, picked up a bid and saw its price climb as high as $5,650 in less than 10 minutes on April 23 – its highest price since Nov. 18, 2018.
At the time of writing, bitcoin’s price has since pulled back slightly, now trading across exchanges at an average price of $5,586, according to CoinDesk’s price data.
Also up roughly 1.48 percent on the day, bitcoin’s individual market capitalization rose to its highest value since mid-November, $96.9 billion, while its percent share of the broader cryptocurrency market, also known as its “dominance rate,” is currently at 53.2 percent, according to CoinMarketCap.
CoinMarketCap data also reveals the cryptocurrency’s exchange trade volume reached 15 billion in the last 24 hours, yet those figures may be misleading as suggested by a recent report from asset management firm Bitwise, which identified 95 percent of the reported trading volume on CoinMarketCap to be fake, with only 10 exchanges reporting honest figures.
These 10 exchanges combined, which include the likes Coinbase, Kraken, Bitstamp and more, reported $1.7 billion worth of total bitcoin trading volume in 24-hours, according to Messari.io.
Generally accompanied by a strong move in bitcoin’s price are similar movements in the USD value of most other cryptocurrencies.
Indeed, the broader market is flashing green today with nine of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap rank reporting gains above two percent, the strongest performer of which, Cardano (ADA), is now up 9.71 percent on the day, CoinDesk data shows.
In all, the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market increased roughly 6.3 billion during today’s rally and now stands at $184.3 million, down roughly 78.2 percent from it’s all-time high of $835 billion achieved on January 7, 2018. (coindesk)
Ocean Tries New Token Sale After CoinList Offering Misses Target
Acochain.com – After a token sale on CoinList failed to reach its target, data marketplace Ocean is trying again on crypto exchange Bittrex International.
Ocean Protocol has a vision to become the ecosystem for “a new data economy,” its founder Bruce Pon told CoinDesk. With the release of Ocean’s version 1.0 beta network earlier in April, its tokens are ready to be used on the platform, but the company has not quite met its fundraising goal.
Through its initial exchange offering (IEO), Ocean aims to raise $6.77 million in bitcoin, following a previous round of over $24 million from Outlier Ventures, Block Asset, Fabric Ventures and Digital Currency Group, according to its listing on CoinList.
With its prior 2019 token sales via the Coinlist and Fractal platforms, the firm ultimately raised a total of just $1.8 million, according to a March blog post. If it succeeds with its IEO, it will meet its original goal announced in February for the CoinList sale.
“We had seen that an IEO was a good way to have more awareness and a broader distribution,” Pon said, while also granting they still needed to close that budget gap.
Its listing partner, Bittrex, has been caught up in a recent dispute with the New York Department of Financial Services over its decision not to grant the company a bitlicense. However, its presence in New York is not relevant to Ocean’s present efforts.
Reflecting on its disappointing token sale, Pon said the U.S. is not “the best environment” for this kind of fundraising right now, admitting:
“We misjudged. We went toward a highly regulated jurisdiction. We followed the rules. But the potential purchasers – or acquirers – they are also uncertain themselves.”
Its deal with Bittrex allows Ocean to focus on its core work for this next sale, while Bittrex will market the listing to its large base of users. “They are the ones who are leading the effort to reach out to their customer base,” Pon explained.
In particular, he’s optimistic about the company’s user base abroad. “We think there’s a lot more crypto enthusiasts coming out of Asia,” he said.
In light of market mood, Ocean has also halved the price of the token from that in the earlier sale, from $0.25 to $0.12.
Ocean noted to supporters in its Telegram channel that they should read the full IEO announcement before flipping out. That’s because participants in the original sale will still be able to opt-in to the better deal, Pon explained, and will get a distribution of tokens at the new price.
“It was just fair,” he said.
The initial circulating supply of OCEAN tokens will represent 22.3 percent of the total supply of 1.41 billion tokens. The greatest portion of future tokens, 51 percent, will be emitted through network rewards for validating transactions, though Ocean has not announced its consensus model yet.
The vision for Ocean is to serve as a place where those with large pools of data can share them securely, allowing data scientists to run analyses on them. The data holders will get the analysis they need and the scientists will both get to hone their tools and earn money as they do so.
The token will be the medium of exchange for these transactions, but Pon explained it will be also used to stake data sets as a way of signaling quality data.
Pon further articulated a much larger vision for the OCEAN token. “What we ideally see for the token is it becomes the reserve currency of the data economy,” he said.
For example, he described a future where companies generating large amounts of data (such as autonomous car sensor makers) could fund the development of their product by selling a security token against the future revenue of that data set – a kind of data IPO.
“What happens if the people who have bought shares in those data streams start to act on behalf of those data streams to get more channels of distribution?” Pon asked.
That’s the sort of future Pon believes could be feasible, provided Ocean is able to mobilize the resources it needs to develop the software today. (coindesk)